Maybe, but you have to be quick to catch it.

To enjoy the snow, Phoenix residents typically drive a few hours north to Flagstaff or gaze out at the snow-capped mountains that surround the valley. But whether in hope or fear, desert residents often wonder why it doesn’t snow much in America’s hottest city.

Temperatures may drop in Phoenix, but snow sticking to the ground is extremely rare.

“We can very well see some snow in the Phoenix area,” said Erinanna Saffell, Arizona state climatologist. “You see snow. You can stick your tongue out and catch it, but it’s not necessarily measurable.”

While it’s possible, residents shouldn’t expect a white Christmas this year, and snowbirds can safely leave the shovels at home.

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Can it snow in Phoenix?

Snow is possible in Phoenix, but snow that sticks and accumulates on the ground is rare. As the climate changes and the city continues to warm due to urban development, there will be even less snow.

Air and ground temperatures are the main factors in the formation of snow in the desert.

“For snow to fall in Phoenix, the ground has to be cold enough for us to measure it, and that’s very important,” Saffell said.

“Certainly if you’re in the higher elevations around metro Phoenix—if you’re on South Mountain or the southern hills—you can definitely get that snow stick.”

The air may also not be cold enough in winter to form snowflakes if water droplets cannot freeze in the clouds.

“It depends on the temperature, and we’re seeing temperatures increase in the Phoenix metropolitan area,” Saffell said. “The urban heat island effect is what makes nighttime temperatures warmer.”

An urban heat island occurs when infrastructure in metropolitan areas, such as buildings and roads, absorbs and re-radiates the sun’s heat, causing temperatures to be higher than nearby rural areas.

“Decreased snowfall is one of the impacts we see on the urban heat island,” she added.

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When has it snowed in Phoenix in the past?

Although snow is rare in Phoenix, it has fallen on the city’s streets several times throughout history.

“Throughout the entire period of our records there were traces. It’s just a mark less than one-hundredth of an inch,” Saffell said. “It’s a very small amount and measuring it is a big deal.”

A trace is a small amount of snow that has fallen, but it is too small to be measured by standard methods, less than 0.1 inch.

The most recent significant snowfall occurred on December 6, 1998, when Sky Harbor Airport recorded 0.22 inches of precipitation and traces of snow on the ground.

The most snow measured at Sky Harbor was 1 inch on January 20, 1933, and January 21 and 22, 1937.

Since 1900, snow has fallen in downtown Phoenix only a few times:

• March 12, 1917: 0.2 inches.

• November 28, 1919: 0.1 inches.

• February 2, 1939: 0.5 inches.

• December 11, 1985: 0.1 inch.

• December 21 and 22, 1990: 0.4 inches.

But on the outskirts of the city, at higher elevations, snow falls and sticks more often, most recently, this year.

On January 7, 2024, a snow and hail storm hit north Scottsdale, dusting the ground with enough dust to create mini-snowmen.

“The further north you go in metro Phoenix, the higher the chance of seeing accumulated snow due to the higher elevation,” said Alex Young, lead meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Phoenix.

If snow does stick to the edges, it usually doesn’t last long before heat or rain washes it away.

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Could it snow this year?

Even if the weather turns cooler for the holidays — with temperatures averaging above normal for Thanksgiving — this year is unlikely to break the streak of snowless winters in central Phoenix.

The Southwest is likely to experience a warmer and drier winter than normal, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The National Weather Service has issued a watch for La Niña, a climatological condition associated with changes in ocean and atmospheric temperatures. During La Niña winters, many parts of the U.S. tend to experience drier and warmer conditions.

There is a 57% chance of La Niña occurring by the end of the year, reducing the chance of snowfall across the state.

Even outside of natural climatologies such as La Niña, snow will become less likely in coming winters due to climate change.

“It used to snow once every 30 years,” Young said. “Given the way things are going with climate warming, the likelihood of this happening is less than once every 30 years.”

Haley Evans writes about extreme weather and related topics for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. Email her with history tips at [email protected].

This article originally appeared in the Arizona Republic: Snow falls in Phoenix; it’s rare and almost never stays